According to a study led by Virginia Tech researchers, “[f]looding could affect one out of every 50 residents in 24 coastal cities in the United States by 2050.” The study shows “how the combination of land subsidence—in this case, the sinking of shoreline terrain—and rising sea levels can lead to the flooding of coastal areas sooner than previously anticipated by research that had focused primarily on sea level rise scenarios.”
What is interesting about this study is that it combines measurements of land subsidence (sinking of the ground because of underground movement), reflected by satellites, with tide charts and sea level rise projections. Adding the land subsidence will provide more complete projections of potential flooding risks in 32 U.S. cities located on the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, and the Gulf of Mexico. Satellite signals bounce off Earth and “measure the time it takes for them to return, allowing the researchers to determine whether the distance between the ground and the satellites is increasing or decreasing. Less distance between the ground and the satellites would mean that the land is rising, while increases in that distance would show that the land is sinking.”
Twenty-four out of the thirty-two coastal cities “are sinking more than 2 millimeters per year,” As many as 500,000 people living in these areas “may be impacted in the next 30 years, with properties facing flooding damage.” “The research anticipates that the 32 cities under consideration will collectively house approximately 25 million people and 10 million properties by 2050. It found ethnic minorities, especially in the Gulf Coast region, could face disproportionate impacts.” Many of the sea-level projections we hear about go a bit further - between 2070 and 2100. “The year 2050, often cited in climate discussions, is not an end point but rather a marker of the immediacy of the issue, said Robert Nicholls, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and professor at the University of East Anglia in the UK, who was a contributing author to the study.” The year 2050 is only 26 years from now. These short-term studies may help people realize there is an immediate problem and motivate them to begin making changes sooner than later to protect their communities.
Sources:
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2024/03/study-flooding-united-states-coastal-cities-2050/
https://sites.google.com/vt.edu/eadar-lab/home
